Live churn monitor · updated July 2026

Watching an algorithm change
break customer loyalty.

ShopSphere AICV tracks how a single platform algorithm update rippled into a sharp rise in cancellations — and the TabTransformer model built to catch it early.

3.55%
Baseline churn
11.64%
Post-update churn
+8.09pp
AICV change
74.1%
Model ROC-AUC
scroll
01 · Algorithm shock

What the update did to churn

AICV compares the historical churn baseline against churn observed after the ShopSphere algorithm update, isolating the size of the shock.

Historical baseline churn
0%
Pre-update period
Post-update churn
0%
After algorithm change
AICV change
0
Post-update minus baseline
Algorithm update
July 2026
Shock / intervention point
Baseline
3.55%
Post-update
11.64%
0

The post-update churn rate increased substantially compared with the historical baseline, highlighting the business impact associated with the platform algorithm change.

02 · Data

Dataset overview

Longitudinal synthetic customer data created to model ShopSphere customer behavior before and after the algorithm update.

0
Customer-month observations
0
Unique customers
0
Monthly observations per customer
03 · Model

The TabTransformer model

A custom TabTransformer-style neural network was trained to classify customer churn using behavioral, engagement, visibility, pricing and satisfaction features.

Accuracy
0%
Precision
0%
Recall
0%
ROC-AUC
0%
Customer
features
Categorical
embeddings
Transformer
encoder
Numerical
features
Churn
probability

Model configuration

Embedding dimension32
Attention heads4
Transformer layers2
Feed-forward dimension96
Dropout0.15
Decision threshold0.29
04 · Try it

Estimate churn risk yourself

A lightweight, client-side approximation of how the trained model weighs these features, running entirely in your browser. It mirrors the model's decision threshold but isn't a live call to the actual TabTransformer weights.

Estimated churn probability
—
—
Adjust the sliders to see the estimate update live.

Calibrated so typical low-engagement, high-friction profiles land near the post-update churn rate, and healthy profiles land near the historical baseline.

05 · Decision strategy

Business cost & decision strategy

The model supports retention prioritization by balancing the cost of unnecessary interventions against the potential value lost when a churner is missed.

Intervention cost
0
Illustrative assumption
Lost customer value
0
Illustrative assumption
FN cost ratio
0
Potential cost comparison

Drag the decision threshold

0.29
Model default sits at 0.29 · on a simulated pool of 1,000 customer-months calibrated to the model's published accuracy, precision and recall
—
Customers flagged
—
Precision
—
Recall (churners caught)
—
Net expected impact

Business decision

Customers with elevated predicted churn probability can be prioritized for retention interventions. The 0.29 decision threshold allows the business to identify a broader group of potential churners while considering intervention costs.

Sample customer queue

Sorted by risk. Flag status updates live as you move the threshold above — click any column to re-sort.

Customer Engagement Satisfaction Visibility Δ Price Δ Churn risk Status
06 · Pipeline

End-to-end analytics workflow

ShopSphere
data
AICV
analysis
Power BI
dashboard
TabTransformer
model
Retention
decision
07 · Notes

Project note

This project uses a synthetic dataset created for academic demonstration. The observed relationship between the algorithm update and churn should therefore not be interpreted as causal evidence from a real commercial platform.


Model performance should be evaluated further on real-world customer data before deployment in an operational retention system.